Stefano Merlo 18 ago 2025

Una stima sulla diffusione dell'aria condizionata in Messico, rivista dopo dieci anni

Un interessante working paper su di un’analisi sull’adozione dell’aria condizionata in Messico fatta dieci anni fa, e sui punti in cui l’analisi originale aveva sbagliato le previsioni senza apparenti palesi errori di stima. Si da la colpa ad aver analizzato bene la domanda (aumento del benessere della popolazione, aumento delle temperature), ma sbagliato ad analizzare l’offerta, omettendo il calo del costo dell’energia ed il miglioramento delle tecnologie.

Abstract:

A common theme in the vast literature on climate change is the estimation of models using historical data to make predictions many decades into the future. Although there is a large and growing number of these types of studies, researchers rarely return later to check the accuracy of their predictions. In this paper, we perform such an exercise. In Davis and Gertler (2015), we used household-level microdata from Mexico to predict future air conditioning adoption as a function of income and temperature. Revisiting these predictions with 12 years of additional data, we find that air conditioning in Mexico has accelerated, significantly exceeding our predictions. Neither errors in predicting income growth or rising temperatures, nor migration patterns, nor an overly restrictive model can explain the large prediction gap. Instead, our results point to the failure to account for falling electricity prices and technological changes in air conditioner efficiency as key drivers of the prediction gap.

Working paper: Lucas W. Davis & Paul Gertler, August 2025, Why Did Air Conditioning Adoption Accelerate Faster Than Predicted? Evidence from Mexico (doi:10.3386/w34101) : https://www.nber.org/papers/w34101

Commenti sul blog Marginal Revolution: https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2025/08/why-did-air-conditioning-spread-so-fast-in-mexico.html

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